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Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments.
Ecol Lett. 2011 Mar; 14(3):211-9
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16 Aug 2011
New Finding
DOI: 10.3410/f.8948956.9508054
Gone with the wind! Or not? Climate variability is expressed also through increases in atmospheric turbulence, and this should enhance the spread of wind-dispersed plant species. This article shows that this prediction is not supported by current evidence and concludes that "concerns about the ability...Continue reading
Gone with the wind! Or not? Climate variability is expressed also through increases in atmospheric turbulence, and this should enhance the spread of wind-dispersed plant species. This article shows that this prediction is not supported by current evidence and concludes that "concerns about the ability of trees to track shifting climates still hold".
In spite of this lack of evidence, the article reports that, for instance, the Stika spruce, in Alaska, spreads at rates of 300-400m per year. But this seems not to be the rule. The perception of an increase of wind-driven species, however, is attracting the attention of many plant ecologists, and the authors of this article tested the link between this perception and the conditions that should be conducive for this pattern, failing to find sufficient support for the climate change explanation.
I confess my (almost) total ignorance about terrestrial plant biology and ecology, but there is one issue that intrigues me. Some plants use wind as a carrier of their pollen and seed, others use insects. The word ‘insect’ does not occur in this paper. The widespread use of insecticides is decimating insect populations, and entomophilous species might have some difficulties in performing successful reproduction. I have a question for plant biologists: is there any evidence of a decreased success of insect-pollinated species? It might be that wind-dispersed species are favored by lower competition from entomophilous species. Maybe the success of wind-driven plants has some link with the use of pesticides. Adding this possible driver to climate change might explain some observed patterns. Multiple causality is almost the rule in ecology. If several ‘causes’ act in synergy, they might have an effect that is not predictable if they are examined one by one. In spite of running the risk of appearing naive, I think that it might be interesting to assess the composition of plant communities in terms of anemophilous vs. entomophilous species and see if the ratio has been changing in recent decades. I have the feeling that the results of such an assessment might show an increase in anemophilous species. The paper does not report on such an issue, so maybe it is worth while exploring this possibility that this fine paper did not mention. But maybe this suggestion is so crazy that the authors did not consider it.
In spite of this lack of evidence, the article reports that, for instance, the Stika spruce, in Alaska, spreads at rates of 300-400m per year. But this seems not to be the rule. The perception of an increase of wind-driven species, however, is attracting the attention of many plant ecologists, and the authors of this article tested the link between this perception and the conditions that should be conducive for this pattern, failing to find sufficient support for the climate change explanation.
I confess my (almost) total ignorance about terrestrial plant biology and ecology, but there is one issue that intrigues me. Some plants use wind as a carrier of their pollen and seed, others use insects. The word ‘insect’ does not occur in this paper. The widespread use of insecticides is decimating insect populations, and entomophilous species might have some difficulties in performing successful reproduction. I have a question for plant biologists: is there any evidence of a decreased success of insect-pollinated species? It might be that wind-dispersed species are favored by lower competition from entomophilous species. Maybe the success of wind-driven plants has some link with the use of pesticides. Adding this possible driver to climate change might explain some observed patterns. Multiple causality is almost the rule in ecology. If several ‘causes’ act in synergy, they might have an effect that is not predictable if they are examined one by one. In spite of running the risk of appearing naive, I think that it might be interesting to assess the composition of plant communities in terms of anemophilous vs. entomophilous species and see if the ratio has been changing in recent decades. I have the feeling that the results of such an assessment might show an increase in anemophilous species. The paper does not report on such an issue, so maybe it is worth while exploring this possibility that this fine paper did not mention. But maybe this suggestion is so crazy that the authors did not consider it.
Disclosures
None declared
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Boero F: F1000Prime Recommendation of [Nathan R et al., Ecol Lett 2011, 14(3):211-9]. In F1000Prime, 16 Aug 2011; DOI: 10.3410/f.8948956.9508054. F1000Prime.com/8948956#eval9508054
F1000Prime Recommendations, Dissents and Comments for [Nathan R et al., Ecol Lett 2011, 14(3):211-9]. In F1000Prime, 25 May 2013; F1000Prime.com/8948956
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Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO(2) enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.
© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x
PMID: 21251175
